NZ Immigration Falters, Kiwis Take Flight To Australia Once More

New Zealand’s annual immigration growth slowed for a second consecutive month in March, suggesting that the economic recovery is weaker than first thought.

The number of permanent migrant arrivals exceeded departures by 20,973 in the 12 months ended March 31, Statistics New Zealand said today in Wellington. That’s down from 21,618 in the year to February. Migration into New Zealand was in negative figures for March, which is bad news for an economy that is so dependent on a buoyant housing market and income from migrants.

Meanwhile, the number of New Zealanders leaving to live in Australia is at the highest level for 12 months, with 3,000 people leaving in March.  According to Statistics New Zealand 30,000 people have left for Australia over the last year.

One of the main reasons for the pick-up in departures is thought to be Australia’s better jobs market where salaries are 30% higher. Medical professionals and engineers are leading the exodus. Australian unemployment is falling from last year’s top of 5.3 % whilst NZ has an unemployment rate of  7.3% that has yet to peak.

For more see the video “The Exodus Continues” in the sidebar ->

The report has generated a strong reaction from New Zealanders. See what they’re saying on NZ Yahoo – “Kiwis flocking to Australia hit a high” . The irony is that their comments sound identical to from people thinking of leaving Britain, looking for a better life in New Zealand.

Graeme
“Its all Helen Clarks fault!! thats who everone has blamed before for NZs problems. I foolishly returned to NZ a year ago to the plea of “kiwis come home” what a mistake, now trying to sell house and get going again.No place for people here that are educated and have a career goal.”

Mike
“..if it was not for me being very close to family i would be over there in a heart beat. Am sick and tired of policies geared for the no hopers, bottom feeding, handout conditioned people who get evrything thing for nothing, when i bust my ass working 50hrs a week along with my wife working the same to make ends meet, dosent seem right to be honest!

Alyson
“We currently live in China and find it hard to imagine how we could afford to live N.Z again. It’s a real shame as it’s such a beautiful country. Maybe that’s the plan to keep the population down. It’s no use blaming John Key I wouldn’t like to do his job, and this has started happening before he took over. All the best to those that are looking at shifting away from N.Z it’s an amazing world out there and lots more on offer, go for it!”

Dirwin
“Yip well that what happens when the pay rates over there are better and the NZ government keeps giving land to the maoris, when it wasint theres in the first place why cant morioris claim land?? oh thats rite they got eatin! haha”

Les
“John Key has ensured NZ become two countries; his seperatist policies proof. We should be referring to NZ in the plural New ZealandS, and good luck to those lucky ones that are leaving this joke of a political swamp.”

Debbie
“Yeh well I think Oz has alot going for it – better pensions, better pay, better weather and more open spaces. I am joining the brain drain……had enough of low pay, tall poppy syndrome and the general nanny state mentality of the community here.”

Les
“New Zealand[s] stand for; abanker PM, collapsed phone networks, power outages, transport breakdowns, military equipment breakdowns, higher GST guaranteed, Emission taxes guaranteed, huge rates on properties forecast, privatisation of public owned assets. Who is going to be last to leave, who is going to turn the light out. Oooops, another power outage.”

Jennifer
“we I am an ozzie that came this way 10 years ago as it was the land of opportunity …but thinking of going back now…”

Kahikatea
“well with the current government here set to increase the gst to 15% and increase tax on wine what do we expect”

Judith
“Yep only the fools will be left here,and why not go good weather better pay lower tax G.S.T,much more to do and see the list goes on and on”

Today's posts - click here

Net Migration Falling, Permanent Departures Up 7.2%.

 We came across this press release on Voxy.com. The ASB says that net migration has fallen from its peak and could slow by more than half to around 10,000 people a  year. It seems that employment growth and a more favorable outlook across the Tasman will continue to attract Kiwis out of New Zealand.

These figures will have an impact on a housing market already feeling the burden of forthcoming changes in taxation of investment property, a proposal to increase GST to 15%  and a relatively strong dollar reducing the purchasing power of migrants.

"Net migration continues at a firm pace, recording net 1,060 new migrants over February, although showing some sign of softening. The annual pace of inflow is now easing from its peak, recording 21,600 new migrants over the year to February, compared to 22,600 in January. The slowing pace of migration comes as permanent departures have started to recover, rising 7.2% in February. This pick up has been underpinned by a recovery in departures to Australia, a trend we expect to continue over 2010. The Australian economy has fared comparatively well through the global downturn, managing to avoid recession. Employment growth there over the past 6 months has been robust, in contrast to rising unemployment in NZ. The more favorable economic outlook will continue to draw New Zealanders across the Tasman: we expect the monthly pace of departures will recover from 5,250 per month currently to 6,500. The annual pace of net migration is likely to slow from 22,000 per year, to around 10,000 per year.

Short-term visitor arrivals fell 1.9% in January. Nonetheless, the current trend level in visitor arrivals remains firm. Australian visitor numbers remain steady, after strong growth over the second half of 2010. We expect Australian visitor arrivals to remain firm, as the lower NZD/AUD makes New Zealand a relatively cheap alternative for Australian holiday makers. Encouragingly, there also appears to be an improvement in Asian visitor arrivals over the past few months. The increased interest has been broad based, with a rise in Japanese, Korean and Chinese numbers. However, StatsNZ have noted extra caution should be applied to interpreting Chinese visitor arrivals, as the typical seasonal pattern has been disrupted by the change in timing of Chinese New Year.

Implications

We expect the pace of net migration to slow over 2010, and the recent pick up in departures to Australia confirm this trend is developing. The slower pace of net migration will remove some of the support to the housing market during the year.

The ongoing strength in visitor arrivals has been encouraging, particularly the recent increase in arrivals from Asia. Meanwhile, the lower NZD/AUD is helping NZ benefit from Australia's good fortune, increasing NZ's attractiveness as a holiday destination. We expect that strong arrivals from Australia will continue as we head into the ski season."

What these migration figures don't show are the age profiles of the people coming to and leaving New Zealand and that a brain drain is underway again.

In the opinion of one prominent economist in Singapore last week  New Zealand's brain drain should be plugged with opportunity. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, MasterCard Worldwide economic adviser said:

"The exodus of the best and brightest to Australia is an Achilles heel for New Zealand business, and personal and business tax breaks may be part of the answer, according to a visiting economist.

MasterCard Worldwide economic adviser Yuwa Hedrick-Wong said the persistent trend of migration to Australia of more than 20,000 people a year "seriously constrains entrepreneurial potential" here.

Speaking in Wellington, Singapore-based Dr Hedrick-Wong said those leaving for Australia tended to be "younger and better educated" people typically with a greater risk-taking attitude.

"They want to conquer the world," he said, but they should be able to do that from New Zealand, rather than having to leave.

"This is a damaging drain on the intellectual and entrepreneurial gene pool of the country," he said.

New Zealand could only reach its true economic potential if it stopped the "haemorrhaging of talent", he said.

Despite economic reforms in the past two decades and being an easy country in which to do business, New Zealand was still losing talent, Dr Hedrick-Wong said.

New Zealand should consider personal and business tax breaks as personal incentives for people to stay, support for business incubators and encouraging greater investment in areas such as the services sectors to create more job opportunities.

"If you are successful in getting those people back, the economic benefit is just huge," he said..."

In June of last year Bernard Hickey was interviewed on TVNZ. He advised Generation X & Y to leave NZ as soon as possible because they are destined to live in two retirement islands and will have to visit their grandchildren overseas. Read our post about it here. He concluded by saying:

"Your only choice is to migrate as soon as the global economy starts recovering and the jobs become available again.
This will be the best revenge you can get. They (the baby boomers) will have to watch their grandchildren grow up by email and the occasional flying visit.
I'm not kidding. Leave ASAP."

It looks like they are!

See also: "New Zealand's Aging Population and the Great Kiwi Brain Drain" written in December 2008. At that time John Key said  

"One of the really worrying things is one in four people who have been to university have now left New Zealand and live overseas. That is the worst brain drain of any country in the developed world."

Today's posts - click here

New Zealand's Aging Population and the Great Kiwi Brain Drain

According to data recently released by Statistics New Zealand the number of families is predicted to rise to 1.44 million by 2031, an increase of 269,000 (23 percent) from an estimated 1.17 million families at 30 June 2006.

However, the majority of those families will be' empty nesters', i.e. couples aged 50 and over.

In a report issued in October of last year Statistics NZ projected that the number people aged 65 years and older will exceed 1 million by the late 2020s, which is double the 2006 figure. By that time the numbers of over 65s will be greater than the number of under 15 year olds.

Since the mid 1970s New Zealand has experienced one of the sharpest drops in the OECD in the number of young people within the working population - the fourth largest fall behind Korea, Canada and The Netherlands.

And because aging populations affect ethnic groups in groups in different ways the ethnic composition of the country is expected to change. By the early 2020s the Maori, Pacifica and Asian share of the youth population are projected to rise whilst the numbers of European youth will fall by 10%.

Net migration from New Zealand to Australia is now at a 30 year high, and 1 in 4 New Zealand graduates work abroad.

Prime Minister John Key has acknowledged that the country's Brain Drain is the worst in the developed world. He said:

"the numbers have to be slowed down, especially because young people are fleeing to Australia. He says the worst departure figures since records began are a reflection of our low wage problem."


To address these problems National has proposed a raft of new measures:

"1. Retaining Kiwis & Attracting More Home
Ensure tax, regulatory, and infrastructure policies make returning home attractive for highly skilled expat Kiwis. Require Immigration NZ to initiate a one-stop-shop approach to servicing the needs of returning New Zealanders.
2. Meeting Our Skills Needs
Streamline employer accreditation:
• Streamline proceedures for qualifying employers to be “recognised“ or “accredited” to recruit internationally.
• Make employment performance count more towards the granting of residence.
• Require employers who recruit offshore to provide a bond. Boost monitoring and remove accreditation/recognition from employers if policies are breached.
Better meet demand for seasonal skills:
• Retain the RSE Scheme for Pacific Nations. Make it easier to hire seasonal workers outside the scheme where it is not meeting employer’s needs.
• Introduce temporary work visas for legal visitors who have a guaranteed offer of seasonal work.
Access higher-level skills by introducing a Silver Fern Visa for people with recognised tertiary qualifications.
This visa will enable holders to:
• Undertake temporary work while seeking highlypaid permanent employment.
• Obtain a 24-month work visa once they have gained permanent employment.
• Apply for permanent residence (once on the 24- month work visa) through the Work-to-Residence or Skilled Migrant provisions.
3. Business and Retired Immigrants
• Set realistic requirements for Business Migrants in capital, language skills, and investment proposals.
Focus on job creation and export earnings.
• Establish a Retirement Visa for high net-worth immigrants who indemnify New Zealand from all health, welfare, and superannuation costs.
4. A World-Class Immigration Service
• Review Immigration NZ to ensure there are clear lines of accountability. Ensure fairness and transparency in its processes.
• Explore the establishment of a stand-alone Department of Immigration and Citizenship with no increase in bureaucrats.
• Strengthen settlement services by establishing a robust evaluation process to ensure effectiveness."

It's worrying to see a new Retirement Visa listed there as it will do nothing to address the problem NZ has with its ageing population, it will encourage more people to see New Zealand as a retirement haven.

Neither is there any mention of how National intends to deal with NZ's 'low wage problem.' (The cause of the brain drain according to Key) That is something that is going to be harder to get to grips with as the country's recession deepens.

Net Migration from New Zealand to Australia at 30 Year High

Statistics New Zealand today released data that shows permanent and long term (PLT) departures from New Zealand to Australia have reached a 30 year high.

In the year to October 2008 the net PLT outflow reached 34,600, up from 26,500 in the previous year .

Meanwhile the overall net migration gain in the year to October was the lowest in 7 years at 87,400 PLT arrivals.

In October immigration consultant Tika Ram said his business had plummeted 30% in the last year, migration interest had been "close to zero":

"The arrogance" of Immigration New Zealand and New Zealand's "impractical immigration policies" were a turn-off to would-be migrants.

Ridiculous immigration polices

"The immigration policies we have are not well thought-out, and written as knee-jerk responses - they are ridiculous and killing the flow of migrants," said Mr Ram.

National Party finance spokesman Bill English said the statistics were a reminder that New Zealand had major fundamental economic issues long before the current international crisis, and the increasing pace of the exodus showed New Zealand needed growth so New Zealanders could earn higher wages and have a better quality of life here.

Act Party candidate and former finance minister Sir Roger Douglas warned that more New Zealanders would leave if nothing was done to the economy, which he said was "hanging in the balance".

Avalanche of people leaving for Australia

"The avalanche of people leaving New Zealand to go to Australia over the past year will be seen as a trickle if we don't put our house in order," Sir Roger said.

"The global meltdown means we're facing a financial tsunami."

Source: NZ Herald

Facts And Figures That You Won't See On Campaign Posters

  Don't drink the Kool-Aid

We’ve all seen the ‘Campaign Posters’ and very effective they are too but here are some of the less well known about facts and figures for New Zealand. Unfortunately some of them make for very grim reading.

Despite propaganda to the contrary CRIME RATES are actually very high.

Says who? well the OECD for one. They say “New Zealand is second only to Ireland in 26 OECD countries in internationally comparable data on vehicle, theft and contact crimes. 22% of New Zealanders experienced such a crime in a 12-month period, compared to an OECD average of 16%.” You’re more likely to experience this type of crime in New Zealand than in almost any other country in the OECD.

In 2009 there was a sharp rise in HOME INVASIONS. There were 112 compared to 85 in 2008. The attacks are happening in both rural and city areas, see link and link.

An independent think tank, The New Zealand Institute released a study which showed that New Zealand has the fifth highest MURDER RATE (assault mortality) in the OECD.

A UNICEF Report Ranks NZ as among the worst in OECD for CHILD ABUSE. A 2003 UNICEF report showed that New Zealand has one of the highest rates of child death from maltreatment (physical abuse and neglect) among rich OECD countries.

NZ ranked 25th on a league table of 27 countries with 1.2 deaths per 100,000 children. For two examples of what goes on read “Man jailed for shooting daughter and “Nia Glassie“

New Zealand, along with Norway, is unusual in that SUICIDE RATES for young adults are greater than for older people. Most OECD countries have higher suicide rates for older people.

The NZ economy is among the most indebted in the OECD and its LIVING STANDARDS lag behind many other OECD member. Relatively low labour productivity growth since the 1970s “has opened up a large income gap relative to the OECD average and an even greater one with leading countries such as the United States. The poor productivity performance is explained to some extent by New Zealand’s special geographic situation, which hinders the transfer of human, physical and technological capital from abroad, but also to sub-optimal policies in a number of areas” for more see link

More Facts and Stats

Crime

• The NZ Institute placed NZ 5th out of 30 OECD countries for its high murder rate

• In 2009 crime rose 3.5 percent, there were 9% more violent offences over 65,000. There were 65 murders, up 25% over last year, the highest figure for 10 years 10 years. Serious assaults up 6% and minor assaults increased nearly 12%.

• 80% of people questioned think that crime is a serious problem in NZ

• There was a total of 1,160 aggravated robberies in 2008, hardly a day goes by without an armed robbery occurring somewhere in New Zealand.

• South Christchurch averages 150 burglaries a month

• Whangarei averages about 27 burglaries a week (108 a month) The hotspots are Kamo Rd, with 14 burglaries reported since the start of the year, William Jones Drive 13, Raumanga Valley Rd 10, Mill Rd and Park Ave 8 each and Corks Rd 6.

• Nelson Bays averaged about 71 burglaries a month in 2009, or 847 in the year. This is an increase of 230 over 2008’s figures.

• Tasman District averages  127 burglaries a month, or 1519 in 2009. That’s a rise of 248 since 2008.

• The estimated social cost of sexual violence in NZ $1.2 billion per year. It is NZ’s most costly crime.

• Alcohol offences skyrocketed in Palmerston North during 2009, up from 87 to 409 on the previous year.

Living Accommodation

• The ‘Leaky Building’ epidemic is estimated to cost NZ$11 billion in repairs. This equates to about 10% of its GDP. It is so high it could adversely effect the country’s credit rating.

• Tauranga has been ranked one of the most expensive cities in the world to live in with housing described as ‘Severely Unaffordable‘. It was the 20th city on the list, more expensive than Auckland (22) and and Christchurch (31)

• The mental and physical costs of poor housing cost $26 million a year. There is also a misconception about the indoor/outdoor lifestyle balance – in NZ people spend 3/4 of their time in their own house.

• 250,000 homes are so damp, cold and poorly insulated that they ruin people’s health.

Economy

• Migrants are important to the NZ economy. The migrant population of 927,000 people had a positive net fiscal impact of $3,288 million in the year to 30 June 2006. The net fiscal impact per head was $2,680 for recent migrants, $3,470 for intermediate migrants and $4,280 for earlier migrants. The net fiscal impact for the New Zealand-born population was $915 per head.

• International students are worth $2 Billion annually to the NZ economy. One leading academic has described them as being “only seen as cash cows“

• OECD data shows that New Zealand’s wages lag around 30% behind Australia. In the past 12 months Australian wages have climbed faster than New Zealand’s (Feb 2010)

Children and Youth

• The NZ Human Rights Commission released a report in which it identified significant human rights issues in relation to violence in New Zealand Schools.

• A study of Western Southland youth showed that 56% of them had been bullied within the last year at school. An overwhelming 92% thought it was because of their ethnicity or culture. 45% identified themselves as being a New Zealander, 33% as European and 18% as Maori.

• 12 Children were apprehended for sexual assault in 2008-2009 financial year. 716 Children were reprimanded by police, the youngest included a four-year-old girl, two five-year-old girls and five five-year-old boys, for dishonesty offences (shoplifting, burglary or theft of property valued under $500)

• Kiwi youth suffer some of the worst health outcomes in the developed world. New Zealand youth have higher rates of mental illness, suicide, teen pregnancy and suffered more injuries than young people in other OECD countries.

• The drug trade in Northland is run by gangs, a gang called The Headhunters is moving into small communities like Ruakaka. “Which is why we have got violence in Ruakaka schools.”

• One child is abused to death every 23 days. “Thousands of children in New Zealand are suffering horrendous abuse at the hands of the people charged with nurturing them every day. And even more are suffering lower levels of abuse and neglect.”

• Arson in schools amounts to $3.2 million a year.

• School vandalism costs $10 million a year, money that would otherwise be spent on educating children. The damage consists mostly of smashed windows, graffiti and break-ins. The worst hit school is Auckland’s Papakura High School where $262,000 was spent on cleaning up and or repairing vandalism.

• “Complacency and an underestimation of risks” contributed to a canyoning tragedy that killed 6 students and their teacher.

• The average university student’s debt is $16,000 and loans must start to be repaid as soon the borrower reaches a salary of least $19,084. Those who leave the country to avoid making repayments are charged charged interest at  6.8 % PA after six months away. It’s one reason why many graduates don’t return home.

• 20% of young New Zealanders leave school without adequate literacy and numeracy skills. “For the last 20 to 30 years there has been no national standards in New Zealand, and one in five young New Zealanders are unable to read and write properly.”John Key, educated in NZ.

• 66% of students entering high school aren’t numerate.

Health and Death

• There is a workforce crisis in New Zealand’s hospitals. Specialist senior doctors are being lost and there is a shortage of cancer specialists. Staff are lost to Australia (where the salaries are 35% higher) and to private practice. The causes are low pay by international standards, overwork and lack of resources to do the job.

• “Taumarunui Hospital is facing a critical shortage of qualified medical staff after one of its remaining two doctors resigned in the wake of the town’s after-hours care crisis.” March 2010

• New Zealand has the highest rates of bowel cancer in the world, thee disease kills about 1,200 people a year.

• 261 people in Canterbury are waiting more than six months for cancer-detecting colonoscopies, raising alarm among doctors. In July 2009 the figure stood at 75 people. A private procedure costs £1,000.

• Prostitution is legal in New Zealand. A 19 year-old woman recently sold her virginity to the highest bidder on an on-line NZ auction site.

• NZ’s Road death toll is twice that of the UK. I n 2007/8 there were 366 road deaths in New Zealand, that’s 8.6 road deaths per 100,000 of population, the UK’s  average is 4.3 road deaths per 100,000 of population

• 29 people died and at least 540 were seriously injured in adventure tourism activities over a 5 year period.

• NZ police don’t carry guns but the country has 11 times as many guns per capita as Britain and 60 percent more than Australia where the police are armed. There are an estimated 230,000 licensed firearms owners using approximately 1.1 million firearms, enough for 1 in 4 of the population. There are no figures for the number of weapons illegally owned by unlicensed people. During a call to one domestic incident in a house in Otahuhu, South Auckland police came across an arms cache of about 45 high powered shot guns and rifles and ammunition. Police confiscated 11 guns from a farmer after a fire on his property caused a major power outage in the North Island

• Road accident deaths in Northland since 1980 are equivalent to the population of a small NZ town. Over 1,100 people have died.

Green Credentials

• NZ farm animals eat their way through 25%  of world’s supply of palm kernel 1.1 millions tonnes, second only to the combined countries of the European Union.

• Applications have been made to operate 16 massive factory farming dairy units in the environmentally sensitive MacKenzie Basin, South Island.  If successful 18,000 cows will be kept in cubicles 24 hours a day for 8 months of the year.  The potential for damage to the environment is significant. One of the farms projects that it will produce 54,000 litres of effluent a day,  another will produce 93,ooo litres.

• There’s an estimated $140 billion of minerals including gold, copper, iron and molybdenum beneath NZ. Plus another $100 Billion worth of lignite in the Southland lignite field. The minerals industry is now pushing the National led government to open up conservation land for mining. They are pushing at an open door.

• New Zealand is the world’s greatest user of the toxin 1080, it is dispersed from helicopters over large areas of countryside in an effort to control mammals and unwanted pests. It is an indiscriminate poison and humans, native wildlife, livestock and pets are affected by it. See also: Videos about 1080

These are NZ’s OECD and World rankings (click on links for data sources)

1st highest country for

*Suicide rates in ages 15-24

*Melanoma Rates

*Cannabis use

*Property crime victims
*Car ownership – 720 per 1000 people, even more than the USA’s 675 per 1000 (2005)

*Rates of driveway deaths in the developed world

*Rape victims In NZ only 9% of sexual offences get reported to police, and of those only 13% of rapes resulted in convictions. The median age of victims is 23 and Europeans account for 61% of the victims – See ‘Conviction rate in sex cases‘

*McDonalds Restaurants per $GDP
see also: Teenager dies in death pact

2nd highest country for

*Suicide rates in ages 25-34
*School bullying

*Total crimes per capita
*Car occupant deaths resulting from collision with car, pick-up truck or van

*Imprisonment rate in the Western World

*Total crime victims

*Asthma prevalence

*McDonalds restaurants per capita

*Immigration foreign population

*Personal income tax

3rd highest country for

*Rate of obesity in the OECD

*Adults prosecuted per capita

*Child maltreatment deaths

*Assault victims

*Teenage pregnancy

*Lone parent families

*Students finding school boring

*Amphetamine use

*Motor Vehicle Deaths

*Imports of brown coal (lignite) per capita

*Loss of electrical power between source and destination
7th fattest country in the world
62.7% of New Zealanders are obese according to the WHO, Kids watching too much TV and ‘modern development’ mostly to blame
8th highest country for Economic Crime (Fraud)
* See PWC Economic Crime Survey
For Road Death and Injury Statistics,  see: Road Death Toll.

For today’s posts see: latest posts